SELECT YOUR VOTE

Lanny Davis: On the "mini- mid terms" (with all due respect, what seems to me to be a hyperbolic, overly cute, and irrational phrase) in Va and NJ gubernatorial races:

The last time I looked President Obama was not on the ballot for two gubernatorial races in NJ and Va. And I think it is irrational to impute any national significance, much less referenda on President Obama, by the outcome of these two races.

In New Jersey, Governor Corzine’s background with Goldman Sachs has become a liability - rightly or wrongly. I submit it is irrational to attribute that problem for Governor Corzine to President Obama, who has railed against Wall Street excess. Meanwhile, I expect he will win a squeaker. If he loses, I submit it would be irrational to conclude that the outcome had much to do with Pres. Obama.

In Virginia, the Democratic candidate has gone out of his way to separate himself from President Obama — and has run one of the worst political campaigns and is one of the worst candidates in my memory. (Full disclosure — when Mr. Deeds snapped last month on TV at a reporter for asking how he could be for and against a tax increase at the same time, I called Mr. Deeds to volunteer to help him on communications strategy - sent him a big contribution (big for me), and never heard back from him. That may or may not have any significance at all–just FYI.)So given that Deeds has separated himself from President Obama and is such a poor candidate to date, I think it is irrational to attribute his loss, if it happens, to President Obama.

Moreover, I submit it is irrational to suggest that a president with a 57% approval rating in the latest ABC/Washington Post highly respected and credible poll (with only a +/- 3% margin of error) can be blamed because of two gubernatorial contests where the two candidates face difficulties having little or nothing to do with President Obama.

Moreover, I believe it is irrational to suggest that defeats in these two contests have anything to do with predicting the results in 2010 national congressional elections — while ignoring the likely Democratic win in NY’s 23rd congressional district, a district that has not voted Democratic (except for Barack Obama in 2008) even when FDR was on the ballot - as Governor (!!!).

The results in 2010 will come down to the state of three issues in late Oct 2010: the economy, whether health care reforms pass and are effective, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

So is it rational to suggest that what happens in NJ and Va in the next two weeks has any predictive value on the outcome of those three issues?

I don’t think so.

Darrell M. West: Off-year elections are overrated as national barometers. New Jersey and Virginia won’t be referenda on President Obama as much as judgments of the candidates on the ballot. In both of those states, there are local factors in terms of candidate quality, campaign strategies, and issue appeals that will be decisive. Commentators should not over-interpret these election results.

Timothy Stoltzfus Jost: I can’t speak for N.J., but in Virginia, all politics is local. The vote will represent the response of Virginians to the campaigns run by the two gubernatorial candidates (and to general dissatisfaction with the state of the state, although it seems to me that this is primarily the responsibility of the Republican dominated House). It should not be read as having greater national significance.

Charles W. Calomiris: These are swing states and of course everyone sees them as bellweathers for 2010. I don’t think we are going to learn much on election day, since the meaning of these races for the national scene is already clear — namely, a severe swing away from the Democrats by moderates and swing-state voters, which has been apparent in the polls for several months. Virginia is going to the Republican candidate, so we won’t learn much there on election day. In New Jersey, we will learn little for national politics no matter who wins; the main lessons there from election day will have to do with political strategy (how not to blow a double-digit lead with ineffective campaigning in the future) and about third party candidates (whether they can ever pose a viable challenge, and whether they do anything but support the incumbent’s candidacy); but in New Jersey, as in Virginia, voters are fed up with politicians who tolerate corruption while pursuing irresponsible spending and intrusive government, and even if Corzine is reelected that will say much about his opponents and little about the desire to retain him as governor.

James Carafano: Get Out the Vote

Inside my head the little voice keeps saying "all politics is local," but I just seeing people reading a lot into the outcome of the elections…particularly if health care legislation doesn’t happen.